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5 FACTS ABOUT SPORTS BETTING

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What is the problem with past results?

I understand, that if you sell picks, that you will not show me future picks. That is totally ok. But why you don’t show past results? Last 1000 picks at least if you claim, that you have clients, that bet $20.000 per bet? To build a business, where you sell one advice for $1000 or something like that, I expect detailed results with yield, detailed risks, odds, bookmakers, etc for at least 5000 picks from last 5–10 years.

But of course, the guy didn’t have any results and this is how I realised, that most of those services make money with the SERVICE, not actual BETTING. And believe me, they are making huge money.

So, how is this possible, that there are people, that will buy a Mercedes without knowing how fast it is? And what are the things, that betting services know and don’t want that foolish people will ever understand.

Hiding the results

I am from Europe and I am amazed how good are American handicappers with hiding the results. If you go to a random betting site from Europe, there is a big chance, that they will have detailed results with the yield, ROI, odds ad everything else, but if you go to random betting site in USA, they will hide most details. In best cases you get “W-L record” and “profit” for current season, which is nothing. Nothing.

I was talking with couple of US handicappers and most of them are very friendly. But when it comes to past results, I hardly find any US handicapper, that sell picks, that has detailed past results (yield, ROI, avg odds, risks compared to bankroll, bookmakers,…), which can he send you right away in csv file.

Most of them jump from betting site to betting site, where they share their picks and when they change 10 different betting/monitoring sites, of course they will win somewhere. But we are not talking about how to win at competition, but about last 1000 picks in a csv file, so you can calculate for yourself what is ROI, yield, what was money management,….

And then decide if it is worth to pay for the pick.

I am also surprised, that monitoring sites don’t calculate yield, bookmakers info, starting bankroll,…. For me the record of 240–215, +32.15 is nothing. To make final conclusion before you pay for the picks, you need more information.

Line Movement

The odds are the key for sports betting, right? If you make a play or not, the odds will decide. I hope you agree with me. It’s not about who will win, but about the right price or the value if you like. In other words, if you think, that one game is 50–50 and the bookmakers will offer the odds of +130, you will play this team. if they will offer -130, you will not play this team. Right?

So, what most betting services will not tell you is the line movement, that will happen for sure. If you bet online, you know, that if you bet little bit bigger amount of money, the line will move. And now imagine if you have 100 clients and if they all bet $1000. And you are 87th who will place the bet. What do you think will be your price?

Do you think, that the price is not important?

50% of bets on +101 = profit

50% of bets on -101 = loss

Price is the key and you will get lower price on good bets in most cases.

Bookmakers Limits and taking into account the cost of the service

If you bet online, bookmakers have their limits and they will not let you to beat them. Most of them. So, if you pay for one pick $25, how much starting money you need to have and how to take this into account?

If you bet $100 on a game, you need to have around $5.000-$10.000 of starting bankroll. Betting small amount of your bankroll is important and this is a topic for next time. Online bookmakers will allow you to bet usually not more than $5000 (Bovada, 5Dimes,…) per bet. Usually $1000 and if you beat them constantly you will get into the trouble. But to bet $1000 per game, you need around $50.000 — $100.000 to invest properly.

Here is an example:Best Blogging Platform 2019  

If you bet $100 on a game and if you pay $25 for one pick (this price I see all over the internet), which is small compared to prices in Vegas, your odds are lowered. And here is how.

Bet $100 on the odds of +100 and if you win, you make profit of $100. Right? When you take into account, that you paid for the advice $25, then you basically made only $75 of profit. That means, that you risk $100 and you won only $75.

What if we turn this into the odds?

What are the odds, when you win $75 by risking $100?

-133. So you basically don’t bet $100 on a game with the odds of +100, but -133. And the results?

Here is what happen: 

As you see, betting service can claim, that they make +6000 units of profit with win% of 56 (this is almost not possible on odds of +100 on the long run, but is good for our example) and at the same time, you will make a loss, because you take into account the cost of the service.

When you take into account the results and the cost of the service, betting services usually can not reach such a winning percentage. This is also one of the reasons, why they hide or don’t show complete results (with yield for example). This is also one of the reasons, why most betting sites, monitoring sites hide all the details about picks. “W-L” record and “Profit in Units” is flawless. Simply as that.

Nobody is guru. Nobody is number 1 in the country

They all claim, that they are number one in country. Betting competitions are not realistic. With competitions you don’t need to deal with bookmakers limits, with dropping odds right away, with your own discipline, etc…. And in most cases you have unlimited bankroll and you can leave when you want. In real life if you work couple of months for your bankroll, this is not a joke and this is definitely not a unlimited bankroll. So, the things are quite different, right? Betting competitions are not realistic. Simply as that.

Betting gurus does not exist. Sports betting is a game of numbers. It is a game of analytics. If you are smart enough and you have some math background with combination of love for the sport, you can succeed. If not, you will probably lose. You are not born with “betting skill”.

Things are changing quickly, bookmakers are smarter and smarter and if you won a competition in 1997 and you are not willing to learn new things, you are out. Intuition and experience are nice. But they should be taken together with facts. And analytics is all about that. Either you are smart and work hard, either you lose. Don’t buy “guru” stories in 2017, be smart.

Boxing It’s Demeaning and Dangerous

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WHEN the 2013 National Football League season kicks off in the US next month, players will have an added layer of protection to go with their helmets and shoulder pads: an independent neurologist at every game to assess them for signs of concussion after receiving a blow to the head.

Head injuries are an occupational hazard for American footballers and a major issue for the NFL. Thousands of retired players are suing the league for negligence and fraud, claiming that the league knew about the long-term risks but hid them.

The condition they fear is chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), previously called punch drunk syndrome, boxer’s dementia or dementia pugilistica. This causes progressive memory problems, personality change and slowness of movement. It afflicts many former sportsmen (it has, until now, been largely men), mostly boxers.

The pathology of CTE is well known. In the 1980s, John Corsellis of the Maudsley Hospital in London documented it in a series of papers, culminating in a 1989 review in the BMJ.

He found that many nerve fibres showed evidence of tearing, with some being completely torn, and also reported widespread brain degeneration. He also described how many neurons were filled with tangles of protein, one of the hallmarks of Alzheimer’s disease.

Other researchers later showed that the brains of men with CTE had a second type of protein deposit called amyloid, another hallmark of Alzheimer’s.

While there is no doubt that these problems are caused by repeated blows to the head, until recently it wasn’t known how.

Blows to the head cause two different kinds of injury. The face is cut and bruised by direct impacts, but damage to the brain is caused largely by rotational acceleration of the cerebral cortex around the much smaller midbrain and spinal cord. This damage may be aggravated by boxing gloves since they add weight and thus energy to punches, causing more rotational acceleration.

Brain tissue is largely a soft mass but the blood vessels within it are fibrous and strong, like wires across cheese. When the head is hit, especially with a rotational movement, one of two things can happen. Either a blood vessel can snap, leading to a haemorrhage, or there can be microscopic tearing of the tissue around the vessel.

Large haemorrhages are what cause boxers to fall into comas and occasionally die during bouts, but the microscopic tears to blood vessels can be no less damaging in the long run.

The first thing to note is that sportsmen who were frequently injured in this way in their youth often develop characteristic behaviour patterns as they get older. These are the problems often reported in lurid stories about troubled ex-boxers: depression, drug and alcohol abuse and violent tempers. All are consistent with underlying damage to the frontal cortex, which controls executive functions such as impulse control.

This is not to say that all ex-sportsmen with these problems have CTE, but it is clear that in some cases it is a contributing factor.

What’s more, recent experiments in mice have indicated that protein tangles and amyloid deposits can slowly spread from neuron to neuron. The distribution of the tangles in CTE is consistent with this, forming first around blood vessels before spreading.

With these findings we can now formulate a plausible hypothesis as to why repeat head injuries to young men in their teens and 20s lead to personality changes later in adult life and dementia in old age: rotational head injury induces damage, especially around blood vessels, leading to local tangle formation, followed by a slow spread of destruction.

Clearly, considerable effort should be expended in all sports to minimise head injuries. Soccer has already done the right thing by replacing heavy leather balls with lighter plastic-coated ones. American football appears to be going in the right direction. But other sports have some way to go.

In ice hockey, the role of the “enforcer”, whose main job appears to be beating up the opposing team’s players, should be abolished. And in all sports where there is any risk of head injury – rugby for example – players should be monitored to keep an eye on the damage. Clearly, all who play and coach these sports should be aware of the risks.

Boxing, however, is a special case. No other sport has the express goal of causing injury to the brain. That is certainly the aim of professional boxing. Even in amateur boxing blows to the head are crucial, and protective headgear may not stop injury from rotational acceleration.

BOXERS AND PEAK PERFORMANCE

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  • If some of these questions bother you, then you probably already know how critically important the mental part of your sport is. If you want to take your performance to the next level, then you have to be willing to take your training far beyond where most boxers stop. Most serious athletes in this sport religiously work on the physical part of the sport. They’ll work on their strength, fitness and quickness. They’ll work on their punches and combinations. Is this stuff important? You betcha! You can’t become successful without “paying your physical dues” in this way. Hard work is definitely one of the main keys to your success in the ring. Without it, you’ll quickly lose.
  • Unfortunately, this is where most good boxers stop. When they go into their matches, they hope they’ll perform well, they hope that they’ll have their “A” game with them today, they hope that they’ll win. You would never leave your conditioning or fighting technique to chance. i.e. “I hope I’m in good shape today.” So why would you leave the most important part of your fighting, the mental side to chance?
  • Think about this: Getting good as a boxer in practice is 95% physical and 5% mental. Translation: You have to work hard on your conditioning and “physical game” to make it happen. However, once you step into that ring for a bout, the percentages flip flop. Being successful is 95% mental and 5% physical. You have the conditioning, technique and fight strategy, now you have to make sure that you stay calm under pressure and keep yourself focused on the right things. For example, your concentration needs to stay in the moment, on executing this punch and this punch only. If you let your mind jump ahead to the future, (i.e. thinking about winning or losing) or slip back to the past (i.e. a previous mistake or bout), then you’ll end up getting yourself too uptight and distracted to perform to your potential. This means that you have to be able to rebound quickly from your mistakes and not carry them into the next round or bout.
  • You have to believe in yourself and have the self-confidence to fight your own fight, rather than your opponent’s when you’re under pressure. You have to be able to handle last minute negativity and self-doubts. You have to be able to master your fears.

HOW DIME BETTORS MADE

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I have created betting model for basketball and after 1373 bets we made a profit of close to 70 units. In other words, $100 bettor made $7000 of profit in last 2 seasons. And more than 1000 bets is not small sample size anymore. And what I am most happy at this moment, is that since I started tracking CLV numbers, we beat the line in more than 80% and CLV is more than +4%.

The beauty of the model is simplicity. Anyone can use it, anyone can implement for any league that he wants and I saw some great results from my members, who have this model, also in some other sports (rugby, handball).

So, I was thinking how to take the ideas from basketball betting model and use it for NFL betting.

NFL is a new sport for me and I wanted to give some simple betting model to my members, so they can project the numbers before they bet. It still amazing how many people bet without numbers and without using any statistics at all. But more and more people are aware that betting without numbers will not make any profit on the long run.

After all, lines, spreads, totals, odds and handicaps are nothing else than some kind of probabilities turned into the numbers. And those numbers directly represent the prices on betting market, that you pay (bet) at the end. So, it is crucial to have statistical method, that will estimate those prices even before bookmakers.

This is not rocket science. It is basic concept of making money. You need to know the price before you buy. You need to know if you can sell it later (so you can make profit) for a bigger price. In sports betting that means, that when you see Green Bay Packers -7, you need to know if this is good spread to bet or not. You need to know what is the last spread that you are willing to take Green Bay Packers (in this case).

So, I wanted to get those spreads and totals before bookmakers open their lines.

And this is how I combined my basketball model with NFL stats. It gives me my projected (or expected) lines and totals. Then I simply compare those spreads/totals with bookmakers numbers.

When I see big enough difference between my numbers and their numbers, I simply make a bet.

Because of simplicity and because of very small number of games in one season, I look for big difference and I bet 1 unit per game on each game.

A HOW TO GUIDE FOR BEGINNERS

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As a young and resourceful person who wants to keep up to date with the latest technological developments, it is a no-brainer that you will have invested in bitcoin. As an every growing cryptocurrency that is breaking the mold in the way people handle money, this innovative and ground-breaking invention is something you just have to get involved with. One thing you might not know you can do with bitcoins, however, is to place bets and indulge in some light, responsible gambling. After all, everyone likes a little flutter! In this following how-to guide, you will get some of the vital information any beginner needs to know about betting with bitcoin, so you can be well informed before you start this fun little venture.

Being responsible

Before you start placing bets or playing games such as online poker, the first and foremost thing you need to be aware of is how to manage your bitcoins responsibly so your money is secure and protected, and you will be pleased to know that it is easier than you may initially think. One suggested idea for doing this is to take whatever money you want to invest and place part of it into a bond, so its money that is traditionally protected, and then invest the remainder into buying bitcoins. This approach allows you a kind of insurance so that whatever happens with the fluctuating values of both traditional physical currency and your bitcoins, you will never be out of pocket and your investment cannot fail.

The advantages

So, why start placing your bets with bitcoin as opposed to traditional money or credit anyway? Well, you will be pleased to hear that there are many advantages to betting with bitcoin. For example, unlike regular betting, the use of bitcoin incurs little to no transaction fees meaning you can save money, and your winning payouts can be in your bitcoin wallet in mere minutes, so there’s no waiting around for your well-deserved winnings. The main pull of betting with bitcoin, however, is that it is so much safer. Instead of having to hand over all your card details, bitcoin requires only an address and your private and public keys. The whole bitcoin system is encrypted and thus near impossible for anyone or any computer to hack into.

Playing online

You can not only place bets online but also play fun games such as poker on reputable websites such as games.bitcoin.com. Websites such as this offer an again safer gambling experience and have taken extra care to ensure their gambling platform is easy to use, with accessible information for your peace of mind. By using a website that allows you to gamble with bitcoins and provides fairness and security, you can sit back and simply enjoy the experience without having to worry.

Bitcoin is growing quickly and is an investment you will definitely want to make which, in turn, will make your betting and gambling a safer, more enjoyable experience right from the get-go.

The Relationship Between Hip Muscle Strength

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To systematically review literature investigating the relationship between hip muscle strength and dynamic lower extremity valgus during movement tasks in asymptomatic females.

Methods

Four databases (CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, Embase and Ovid MEDLINE) were searched in February 2017. Studies investigating the relationship between hip muscle strength and dynamic knee or lower extremity valgus during movement tasks among asymptomatic females over 18 years old were included. Meta-analyses were performed where two or more studies used similar tasks.

Results

Five studies reported no relationship between hip strength and dynamic lower extremity valgus. Greater peak lower extremity valgus was associated with reduced hip strength in eight studies, and greater hip strength in three studies. In the meta-analysis, a relationship between weaker hip strength and greater dynamic lower extremity valgus was found for ballistic single leg landing, but not double leg landing or single leg squat tasks.

Conclusions

Although the relationship between hip strength and dynamic lower extremity valgus is conflicting, meta-analysis revealed lower extremity dynamic valgus was consistently associated with hip strength in single leg ballistic tasks, but not double leg ballistic or single leg squat tasks. The relationship between hip strength and dynamic lower extremity valgus may be conditional to task demand.

GOOD SPORTS HEALTHY MINDS PROGRAM

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One in five Australians experiences mental ill-health every year. Your club could play a pivotal role in enhancing and supporting the positive mental health of your members, players and their families. With so few Australians seeking professional help for mental ill-health, it’s more important than ever to ensure your players, members and parents feel safe, connected and supported.

We know that community sporting clubs across the country are leading the charge when it comes to promoting physical fitness, but your club can also support those who are experiencing mental health issues.

Good Sports works with sporting clubs to build stronger and safer support networks that encourage open and inclusive conversations around mental health. Your local Good Sports team will connect your club with local mental health services and tailor the program to the needs of your club.

The benefits:

  • Improved knowledge within your club
    Coaches, senior club members and leaders will be better equipped to understand the mental health environment in their club and respond accordingly.
  • Make a difference
    Your players, members and their families may feel more supported by their club and may be more likely to seek help if they know it’s readily available.
  • More respect for your club
    Healthy Minds clubs are stronger, more respected and more connected in their local communities, making them more attractive and inclusive to their broader communities.
  • Better outcomes
    Clubs that support player resilience by having a strong understanding of mental health may see better player performance.
  • Plenty of support
    The Good Sports team supports your club to complete the program at your own pace and with tailored information and strategies.

Coaching Youth Basketball Was a Big Part

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Coaching youth basketball was a big part of the now Supreme Court justice’s confirmation hearings this fall. He even brought his CYO team to the hearings to prove his passion. One of the many, many lowlights of the proceedings came when Kavanaugh moaned that those asking him to answer charges of sexual assault were killing the chances that he’d be back on the sidelines

“I love coaching more than anything I’ve ever done in my whole life,” Kavanaugh said during the hearings. “But thanks to what some of you on this side of the committee have unleashed, I may never be able to coach again.”

But over the weekend, Kavanaugh was indeed back at it during the 2018 Dick Brown Memorial Turkey Shootout, an annual basketball tournament for CYO squads held in Hyattsville, Md. Kavanaugh’s 12-and-under Blessed Sacrament squad, the defending champs, made it all the way back to the championship game this year.

The rest of the testimony notwithstanding, Kavanaugh’s claim about being an ardent supporter of girls hoops is unimpeachable. Tournament director Joe Sego tells me that Kavanaugh has brought teams to the event—named after longtime DC-area youth coach Dick Brown, who died in 2006—for at least the last four years. Word around D.C. basketball circles is that the FBI actually contacted youth hoops referees during their September investigation of Kavanaugh and asked about his conduct during the games. “I think everybody said he wasn’t an intolerant douchebag,” says one source familiar with the background check.

The renown/notoriety the jurist-coach has gotten since the hearings didn’t cause much change in how the competition was run, Sego says, other than “the three [Secret Service] guys standing at the door this year.”

And, as it turned out, fans didn’t treat him any differently. Sego says “the bigger celebrity” at the event was Johnny Holliday, the locally legendary University of Maryland play-by-play announcer (who obsessives of the Beatles also known as the guy who in 1966 introduced the Fab Four at their final concert).

“I think more people wanted their pictures with Johnny than Brett,” he says.

Alas, Kavanaugh’s team wasn’t able to defend their championship, falling in the finals to a tough team from Holy Redeemer, a Kensington, Md., parish. No need to blame anybody’s bias for the result, however.

Boxing Up Food Poverty

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Welfare has been politically contentious for as long as it has been necessary. A construct of the modern industrial state, welfare uses various mechanisms, such as food, services or cash, to provide assistance for hard-pressed citizens qualify under a given standard of poverty. While different societies have divergent approaches and attitudes towards welfare, in the United States and United Kingdom those relying on such ‘hand-outs’ — to employ a much used pejorative term — have routinely been characterized as unworthy of such benefits, a drain on the state or even undeserving of full citizenship. Recipients of welfare are often used as political scapegoats whilst simultaneously trying to survive and lift themselves and their families out of poverty on what are, in some of the world’s richest countries, often very meagre benefits.

Within its proposed budget for the next fiscal year, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which runs the Supplementary Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) for low-income individuals and families, has suggested a massive change to the way such benefits are distributed. While the term ‘food stamps’ is still the common vernacular, today’s SNAP beneficiaries get an electronic debit card each month that has money loaded onto it, with strict guidelines and restrictions on what it can be used for. SNAP card purchases can only be made at places that choose and are able to accept such cards, which has tended to exclude farmers markets and other cash-only points of sale. This last point has become a growing issue in the effort to help improve health outcomes among the poorest families due to already limited access to fresh fruits, vegetables and breads, which is exacerbated in so-called ‘food deserts’. Now the USDA is seeking to make it even harder for them.

Under the new budget, SNAP recipients who receive more than US$90 a month (which is a vast majority of those in the program) would have half of their monthly benefit replaced instead with a pre-made box of shelf-stable foods, such as cereals, pastas, and canned fruits and vegetables, sent by state governments each month. The department claims that this change would save money — up to US$129 billion over 10 years — by reducing ‘waste and fraud’, and by providing these items to recipients for less than they pay at the store. While such savings would surely be forthcoming due to economies of scale if nothing else, there are numerous issues and questions that, although immediately apparent, are as yet unanswered.

For starters, who determines the contents of the box? Will government officials in consultation with nutritionists carefully select the healthiest possible combination while taking advantage of seasonal changes in prices? Or will the job be outsourced to private companies seeking to make a profit within whatever general guidelines they are given? Will it be the same box of goods for everybody, regardless of age, family size, regional or ethnic cuisine, religious and personal diet choices, and allergic restrictions? Will the contents be the same each month, so that recipients know what to expect? Or change regularly to provide some diversity? What about lost revenues for local grocers, markets and farmers who rely on SNAP recipients as customers on a daily basis? And how can reducing the ability of recipients to buy fresh fruits, vegetables and bread be said to lead to “no loss in food benefits”

According to the USDA’s own data, some two-thirds of SNAP recipients are under the age of 18 or over the age of 60. Fresh foods are a vital and irreplaceable element of everybody’s diet, but all the more so for those who need those nutrients most. Food poverty (the inability of individuals and households to obtain an adequate and nutritious diet) is on the rise in many allegedly ‘developed’ countries. It is not simply a matter of having enough volume of food to eat but a complex problem also involving lack of access to transport, cooking skills and facilities leading to a paucity of vitamins, minerals and roughage in the diets of those surviving on the lowest incomes. Furthermore, while welfare recipients may be in poverty, that does not mean that they are undeserving of good tasting food, nor should their ability to choose their own food be taken away from them and replaced by bureaucrats trying to shave pennies off a box of goods that may never be eaten. In trying to save money, the USDA is instead effectively punishing poor people by stripping them of the ability to determine and make meals that meet their own nutritional needs with the means available to them.

It is also worth noting that this move occurs in one of the few nations on earth that has never acknowledged a formal right to food on the part of its residents. Many countries around the world have adopted, either implicitly or explicitly, some form of law or international agreement — such as Article 25 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, or the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights — that asserts a right to adequate food as a fundamental component of human life. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations provides voluntary guidelines to nations in line with Millennium and Sustainable Development Goals calling for eradication of mass poverty and hunger in coming decades, with those guidelines premised on Article 25. The Covenant has been incorporated into the legislation of over 70 nations. Countries such as Mexico, Brazil, South Africa and 20 others (mostly in the global south) even have a right to food enshrined as a separate provision within their constitutions.

In this light, a move by the world’s richest country to strip away food access through a budget manoeuver to ‘prevent waste’ is not only disingenuous but emblematic of an unceasing battle against welfare itself, with farmers, grocers and the poorest among us being punished. It further alienates poor consumers from the source of their food, inevitably furthering the ‘plant blindness’ that is already too prevalent in our increasingly urbanized society.